Up South

A Londoner trying to get by in Edinburgh

The Knockouts are Here…

The pregame is over. The real tournament starts now. Or so goes the old cliché. The group stages are done and the time to be cautious and conservative is over. Now is the time to let loose, the time to go for it. This is the make-or-break moment.

The group stages are always fun. Teams who know they have no hope in hell of advancing going hell for leather and trying to make an impact on the tournament. Case in point, Albania. One of my mates had predicted that they would be the surprise package and “king-maker” of their group. He was right: Albania’s draw with Croatia contributed massively to the Checkered Ones being eliminated.

Sometimes the group stages throw up amazing stories. Group E had, for the first time ever, all four teams finish on four points – one win, one draw, one loss each. In group F, Georgia beat one of the tournament favourites in Portugal to qualify for the knockouts in their first-ever international tournament. Additionally, countries underestimated before the tournament – such as Slovakia, Slovenia, and Romania – had amazing group stages and qualified.

However, there was a drawback. Since being one of the four best third-place teams presented an extra path for qualification, there were accusations of the big teams playing it safe. Effectively, a big enough win in the first match would guarantee you qualification. This has led to giants like England, France, the Netherlands, and Italy being boring and playing it safe. Win the first game and then draw the second; then you’re through.

To paraphrase Logan Roy: I love you, group stages. But you are not serious football.

Because you can’t play it safe in the knockouts. Not really, anyway. You can try and defend and hold on for a low-scoring victory. But if that strategy doesn’t work, then there isn’t a game three days later that you can play to rectify the situation. If you play it safe for 80 minutes but then concede, you’re looking down the barrel of a flight back home. Or worse. An extra 30 minutes on top of the 90 already played. And if you can’t get out of that? Penalties. The ultimate test.

Strategies that worked in the group stages are liable to backfire massively. Not just the aforementioned low block, but also the high-intensity attacking style. Score lots of goals? Yes. But you can also very easily find yourself 3-0 down as a top team exploits the spaces left behind. This leads to more questions: do you change your tactics? Do you set up differently than in a group stage match to throw off your opponents, but risk disrupting your team chemistry? Or do you keep what’s worked and hope that it’ll work against a team that might have topped their respective group?

And, of course, it’s a time for giant killings. You just need to be good enough for one game. Before the tournament, if Switzerland and Italy met in a knockout match most observers would have leaned towards Italy. After the group stages, it would have been an even 50/50. In fact, it wasn’t even close. The Swiss suffocated the Azzurri, pressing them high and often, and dictating the play in all major departments. The Italians had no chance to get into the game, and the few times they did, they were unable to do even the basics.

In the later game, Germany v Denmark was a true heavyweight fight, belying the Danes’ underwhelming results in Group C. They truly went for it, toe-for-toe, until two minutes of VAR pain for Denmark sucker-punched them and left them deflated.

Today is England v Slovakia (17:00 BST) and Spain v Georgia (20:00 BST). Two teams that are clear favourites. Two teams that performed above their expected level in the group stages. Two walkovers or two giant killings. It’s a one-off game. Bring on the serious football.

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