23.06.2024

We heard it before we saw it. Cries of agony and despair echoed over Inverleith as our iPlayer stream lagged behind other’s TV broadcasts. But even with their screams we still weren’t prepared for what was about to happen. A cross looped high into the Hungary penalty area. It drops down. Heads leap for it, feet kick out – a proper stramash. And then there’s a break – Hungarians galloping up the pitch, three Scots trying to get back into a defensive line. Except they haven’t seen the Hungarian winger on the right. He drives to the byline and cuts it back. Szoboszlai slides in – he misses. So do four Scottish defenders. Csoboth doesn’t. 1-0 to Hungary. In the 100^th minute.

Pain.

Heads sink into hands. How? How has it happened again? 12 tournaments, 12 group stage exits. This was going to be the time, surely? Scotland wasn’t going to win the group, but on paper they seemed equal to Hungary and Switzerland. But even if they weren’t second, four of the best third-place teams went through. Surely, this time it would happen.

But in all honesty, it would have been extremely lucky if Scotland got through. Two goals in three games, 5.7 shots per game, 1 shot on target per game, 1.54 expected goals for the whole tournament. The biggest loss of the tournament was Scotland’s 5-1 loss to Germany, a match the Scots on the whole expected to lose but not like that. Their only point came from a 1-1 draw against Switzerland. Their first (and only) shot on target against Hungary happened in extra time of the second half. If Scotland had drawn against Hungary and ended up on two points, they would have had to hope that FOUR other results went their way to qualify.

Readers who are Scottish will point out that England also only scored two goals and lamely limped through with a fair bit of luck. That is true (and we’ll get to that later). But the numbers for England are different. 9.7 shots per game, 3.7 shots on target per game, and an expected goals figure of 3.42. England have massively underperformed on their shooting and finishing, but they’ve been good defensively. England’s expected goals against is 1.42; Scotland’s is 4.74.

And then there was the penalty. Oh, the penalty. Something that looked pretty solid at the time, and then seems even more inexplicable the more you watch. Willi Orban can’t catch up with Stuart Armstrong, and his right knee connects with Armstrong’s calf, sending the Scottish striker down inside the box. “Penalty!” we cried out. “Penalty!” the nation screamed. “Play on!” says the referee. No penalty. No VAR review. My ex-flatmate and I tried to look at it as objectively as we could at the time – “Maybe it’s one of those that they think isn’t clear and obvious. Maybe if it had been given, it wouldn’t have been overturned.” Look at the penalties given in France v Poland and the blood boils. Although, Steve Clarke saying that he didn’t ask the ref why the penalty wasn’t given because he was Argentinian and doesn’t speak the language, and why was he officiating a European match, did make it feel a bit more like grasping for straws.

We were supposed to take part in a party afterwards. But we were too tired, too drained. Watching football is emotional. It had been a long day and the rollercoaster of that Scotland match had wiped us out. We left earlier than expected, wanting to simply conk out in bed. Hoping it will go better next time.

***

25.06.2024

Numbers can only tell you so much. The numbers say that England created chances. The numbers say that there was an attacking threat. The numbers are bollocks.

75 minutes in, and my phone buzzes. Message from one of my coworkers: “My God this is 75 minutes of my life am not getting back.” Another message from him at full-time: “That was piss.”

This was supposed to be a statement match. After playing poorly against Denmark and getting slammed by the pundits, the media, and the public, and after several players coming out strongly against it, we were supposed to see a newer, revamped England. An attacking, dynamic England, that would shake up the tournament, get everyone back onside and start building a head of steam for the knockouts.

What we got instead was only one change from the Denmark game that was quickly reversed, a lot of sideways passes, a lack of penetrating runs, and players looking like they’ve never played with each other.

It’s worrying. It’s really worrying. It’s worrying that England doesn’t seem to be able to break down a defensive team. It’s worrying that no one seems willing to take the risk and make a run or play an attacking pass. It’s worrying that there doesn’t seem to be any on-field problem-solving. Southgate got his starting eleven wrong and made his substitutions too late. Slovenia, a team over forty places below England in the global rankings, held out the pre-tournament favourites to a 0-0 draw and advanced to the knockout stages for the first time in their history. The most exciting thing that happened during the game was when I almost knocked over my full glass of Guinness but didn’t. Yep.

Pain.

Are there any positives? Well, yes. Sort of. England have been very solid defensively in the group stages, only conceding once. Palmer, Mainoo, and Gordon, when they were brought on, looked electric and willing to make those runs and passes that we desperately wanted to see from them. And (much to the chagrin of my Scottish friends) we have topped our group and ended up on the side of the draw without Germany, France, Spain, and Portugal.

But at the same time, there is a real worry. A worry that Southgate won’t change his starting eleven, and a genuine fear that the moment we come up against one of the main contenders or a dark horse (e.g. Austria) we’ll be smashed.

Pain. Football is pain.

Stats courtesy of whoscored.com – accessed 26.06.2024